How An Usually Warm November Could Sweep Trump Into Office

Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 3.32.49 PMMuch of the media was stunned over a sudden boost in Trump’s poll numbers in battleground states. They were grasping for answers and of course ignored the obvious. Racial tension hurts Democrats, duh! When Democrats and #BlackLivesMatter activists stoke racial tension they divide the country, and most of the country comes out on the side of the right not the left.

From Politico:

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

The race is so close that it’s within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

Perhaps there is a “Ferguson effect” in politics as well as in law enforcement. In the face of riots, voters will go for the “law and order” candidate every time. It is quite possible that riots were a huge factor in Richard Nixon’s first victory. Keep in mind that protestors have only been attacking the police this summer, and for the most part, we have escaped a full blown riot with widespread private property destruction.
So how does an unseasonably warm November make Trump win the election? Well, riots don’t normally happen when it’s cold outside. If another viral video serves as a spark to set off the powder keg of anger in American cities, warm weather could be the difference between a full blown riot and a peaceful protest. A political “Ferguson effect” could easily sweep Trump into office.
While most of the media won’t admit even admit that #BlackLivesMatter is unintentionally helping Trump, the reality is that widespread protest probably helps Trump even more than polling suggests. Voter turnout should be higher among potential riot victims who want law and order than turnout among those rioting because decades of voting for Democrats isn’t working out for them.