This Is The Poll That Really Matters To Donald Trump

Screen Shot 2016-02-20 at 7.42.41 AMThe media is totally focused on national polls but it’s the battleground polls that really matter and of the battleground states, probably none is more important than Pennsylvania. Incredibly, despite having one of his worst weeks ever in terms of national polling Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania polling numbers haven’t budged and that’s really good news for Donald Trump.

From the

On Monday – after nearly a month of bad press that began with an Indiana judge and ended with firing his campaign manager – the latest Quinnipiac survey in the state showed Trump’s polling numbers had not budged from their May tie with Hillary Clinton.

Welcome to Pennsylvania, where Trump isn’t going to have some of the problems he is going to have elsewhere, because there is very little of what the Democrats call the rising American electorate.

The Latino vote is statistically unimportant. So is the Asian or the multinational vote, and while Philadelphia has its share of college educated whites who work in the information economy, most of the state does not.

So, the sort of constituencies that Hillary Clinton will probably do as well or better than Obama nationally, are not going to come into play very much in Pennsylvania.

Hence, Trump remains large and popular in the state even after a brutal month of bad press. Even after Hillary Clinton had delivered a succinct, measured brutal take down of him in Pittsburgh, two days after the massacre in Orlando.

In truth, what Trump needs to do is pretty simple: he needs to hold on to the moderate Republican and the moderate independent, of which is most indicative in high income suburbs of suburban Pittsburgh and the collar counties of Philadelphia.

And, increase the share of the vote of the working class Democrat and independent voters in old blue collar towns like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre, Allentown and Erie.

African American turnout in this state in 2012 was down slightly from its high-water mark in 2008. Hillary will win that vote – but it’s hard to imagine the old New Deal coalition rallying around her on issues that are important to them like guns, God, national security and squelching the breadth of government.

Trust in government is also an issue for them – can she convince them she will bridge that gap between them and Washington?

“It sounds like a cliché to say they don’t get it, but I can’t think of a better way to emphasize the point,” Judy said of government largess and incompetence.

National polls probably matter less in this election than any other recent election. It probably comes down voter turnout among core supporters and in the critical state of Pennsylvania those core supporters have not been bothered in the least by Trumps latest comments.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton should simply be concerned with how they preform in P.A., O.H., N.C., and F.L., national polls really don’t matter.